Electrification: A key driver for a greener tomorrow
March 24, 2025
The energy transition will require us to modernize our grids and generate energy from clean sources. Here’s how we can do it.
The North American electricity grid is one of humanity's largest machines. It’s transmission network spans over a million kilometers, with nearly ten million kilometers of distribution lines in the United States (US) and Canada. That’s enough to circle the earth 275 times! This vast grid manages output from thousands of generation stations—natural gas, coal, nuclear, hydroelectric dams, renewables, and energy storage—powering hundreds of millions of consumers, including millions with rooftop solar generation. It’s more than fair to say we’ve built an engineering marvel to move the electrons that power our lives.
The grid will be key to the energy transition and the backbone of electrification, allowing us to replace fossil fuels with electricity wherever possible. This shift not only promises to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions but also offers significant health benefits by cutting air pollution. Economically, the potential is enormous. Some estimates suggest a USD$12-trillion-investment by 2050 in North America and the creation of three million new jobs in the US.
Electrification presents two main challenges. The first is generating more electricity to offset our direct use of fossil fuels. The second is cleaning up our electricity generation methods, as much of our current supply comes from fossil fuels. Given the scale of our existing system, what does the future of electrification look like? Let’s explore below.
Electrification offers a transformative opportunity to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, improve public health, and open up substantial economic opportunities.
How do we currently use fossil fuel energy?
Electrification aims to replace fossil fuels-based energy with clean electricity. But how much energy are we talking about? The short answer is a lot. To understand this, we need to look at energy use in three key sectors: buildings, industry, and transportation. Each sector has its complexities. But their fossil fuel usage is relatively straightforward. Buildings use fossil fuels mainly for heating and hot water. Industry uses them for high-temperature processes. And transportation uses them for moving people and goods.
How much do these sectors consume, and where does it come from? US energy consumption data highlights the scale of the electrification challenge. While Canada operates on a smaller scale, the reliance on fossil fuels by sector is similar. Each sector uses tens of thousands of petajoules of energy annually. To put that into context, one petajoule is roughly equivalent to driving a non-electric car around the earth 40,000 times! Currently, fossil fuels dominate the energy supply in all sectors, though electricity use is higher in buildings than in transportation. Despite the varying potential for electrification across sectors, the overall goal is to displace a vast amount of fossil fuel energy.
To understand how much clean energy we need for electrification, we need to look at energy use in three key sectors: buildings, industry, and transportation.
How much more electricity is needed?
As our energy demands evolve, electrification will continue to become increasingly important. But it won’t replace fossil fuels on a 1:1 basis. Electrification boosts efficiency, reducing overall energy needs. But fossil fuels pack more energy per unit of mass or volume, which makes some applications difficult to electrify. It also makes estimating long-term electrification demand tricky.
Take heat pumps for building heating and electric vehicles (EVs) for personal transportation, for example. These alternatives are much more efficient than their fossil fuel-based counterparts. Did you know that an internal combustion engine uses only 25-40% of its energy to move a vehicle, while an electric engine is two to three times more efficient? This means huge energy savings and less input energy needed for the same benefit.
But what can be electrified is still evolving. Technologies like heat pumps and EVs are viable today but are just starting to scale up. There’s plenty of room for innovation, cost reductions, and growth, which will boost electrification potential. However, some sectors, like long-haul freight, marine transportation, and aviation rely on the high energy density of fossil fuels and are unlikely to be electrified any time soon. These sectors will probably depend on clean fuels to cut emissions. Similarly, some industrial processes like the high heat requirement for steel making—which needs temperatures over 1,500° Fahrenheit!—are hard to electrify.
The extent of electrification depends on policy, market conditions, and our ability to adapt to new technologies. This makes any estimates of electrification potential inherently uncertain. So, how much more electricity will we need? According to Princeton’s University’s ZERO Lab, which has done extensive energy modelling for the US, electricity demand could double or even triple by 2050, depending on policy choices and energy transition goals. Despite the uncertainties, one thing is clear: We’re looking at significant growth ahead!
By embracing electrification, we can pave the way for a sustainable future. One where clean, efficient energy powers our homes, industries, and transportation systems.
Cleaning up the electricity supply
To reap the full benefits of electrification, the growth of electricity generation capacity should come from clean resources. This means not only ramping up our electricity generation capacity by two to three times but also cleaning up our current methods. The clean energy solutions available are diverse. These include established renewables like hydropower, rapidly scaling renewables like wind and solar, returning resources like nuclear, and emerging resources like carbon capture and advanced geothermal. Each of these has its own set of opportunities and trade-offs, pointing towards an all-of-the-above strategy.
Hydropower generation has been a reliable, non-emitting, and cost-effective energy source. For instance, Canada gets 60% of its electricity from hydropower. However, most of the best sites are already in use, so hydropower's potential growth and role in future electrification is limited. To meet future demand, we need to boost non-hydro clean generation.
Wind and solar generation have been scaling rapidly for more than a decade and increasingly provide the cheapest electricity available in many areas. Their modular nature allows for quick deployment, but variability means they might not always produce electricity when it is needed. One solution to this problem will be increasing transmission networks to allow greater sharing. Often called the "superhighway" for electricity, high voltage direct current (HVDC) can efficiently transport electricity over long distances, helping to balance local variability.
Energy storage will also play an important role in electrification. Battery storage, especially lithium-ion batteries, pumped storage hydropower, and emerging storage technologies can store cheap renewable energy and supply it when needed. This makes the grid more reliable.
Nuclear energy offers a non-GHG emitting, centralized, baseload generation. Despite historical cost overruns and community opposition, support for nuclear energy seems to be shifting. New reactors are coming online, and small modular reactors are being developed. This could make nuclear a potential key player in electrification.
Beyond these proven technologies, there are opportunities that still need scaling but may contribute to clean generation in the future. Carbon capture could allow continued fossil fuel use without emissions, and advanced geothermal could expand renewable opportunities. These and other emerging technologies need time to scale and become cost competitive. But they hold great promise for the future.
The overall clean generation capacity needed for electrification depends on the mix of resources and policies pursued. At a high-level, we can assume that our clean generation assets must increase by several times the capacity currently in place.
Hydropower generation has been a reliable, non-emitting, and cost-effective energy source.
A pivotal moment
Electrifying our energy use and cleaning up our grids requires a colossal, all-of-society effort. This massive industrial undertaking presents a significant opportunity. Grid expansion will require critical materials and skilled people. Electrification will drive resource demand, leverage our manufacturing expertise to bolster clean energy supply chains, and require re-skilling and up-skilling our workforce for this high-stakes transition.
Electrification offers a transformative opportunity to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, improve public health, and open up substantial economic opportunities. Success depends on our ability to generate clean electricity and ensure its reliable delivery. This requires collective innovation, investment in an enhanced grid, clean energy sources, and energy storage solutions.
By embracing electrification, we can pave the way for a sustainable future. One where clean, efficient energy powers our homes, industries, and transportation systems.